Public Validation Receipt

Veritas — 2026-10-13 — Day 58 of public tracking

Outcome of the first 15 minutes of trade: predicted bands against the actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.

Forecast generated: 2026-10-13T08:46:54.940837+05:30

Bands held (median)
2/3

Minutes inside the band
NIFTY 50 3/14 · BANK NIFTY 14/14 · SENSEX 6/14

Bands held (≥70% of minutes)
1/3

Direction (asserted)
3 of 3

Direction (neutral)
0 of 0 correct

NIFTY 50

BAND MISS

Predicted band (low)22,340.46

Predicted band (high)22,431.48

Model centre22,385.12

Actual open (09:15-09:25 Median)22,436.85

Band result (median of 09:15/09:20/09:25)MISS ✗

Band result (≥70% of first 15 minutes)MISS ✗ (3/14 minutes, 21%)

Direction (asserted: BULLISH)Correct ✓

Confidence69.7%

Direction sourceovernight gap-sign rule; classifier shadow: NEUTRAL

Failure modeRANGE_MISS

The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (22,436.85) traded outside the predicted band (22,340.46 – 22,431.48) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 5.37 above the upper bound. The model asserted a BULLISH direction, and the first-15-minute price moved that way. The asserted call is scored correct. Model confidence was 70% with strong directional reliability.

BANK NIFTY

BAND HIT

Predicted band (low)54,468.87

Predicted band (high)55,384.46

Model centre55,027.33

Actual open (09:15-09:25 Median)55,154.75

Band result (median of 09:15/09:20/09:25)HIT ✓

Band result (≥70% of first 15 minutes)HIT ✓ (14/14 minutes, 100%)

Direction (asserted: BULLISH)Correct ✓

Confidence56.7%

Direction sourceovernight gap-sign rule; classifier shadow: BEARISH

The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (55,154.75) landed in the upper part of the predicted band (54,468.87 to 55,384.46). That is 127.42 points above the model's centre (55,027.33). The band held on the median test, and the index was inside it for 14 of 14 one-minute closes (100%). The model asserted a BULLISH direction, and the first-15-minute price moved that way. The asserted call is scored correct. Model confidence was 57% with strong directional reliability.

SENSEX

BAND UNVERIFIED

Predicted band (low)71,851.90

Predicted band (high)72,171.78

Model centre72,000.82

Actual open (09:15-09:25 Median)72,155.95

Band result (median of 09:15/09:20/09:25)HIT ✓

Band result (≥70% of first 15 minutes)MISS ✗ (6/14 minutes, 43%)

Band tests disagreeThe median test was measured against stale inputs; the minute test reads traded prices. Treat this band result as unverified.

Direction (asserted: BULLISH)Correct ✓

Confidence67.8%

Direction sourceovernight gap-sign rule; classifier shadow: BULLISH

The SENSEX first-15-minute price (72,155.95) landed in the upper part of the predicted band (71,851.90 to 72,171.78). That is 155.13 points above the model's centre (72,000.82). The band held on the median test, and the index was inside it for 6 of 14 one-minute closes (43%). The model asserted a BULLISH direction, and the first-15-minute price moved that way. The asserted call is scored correct. Model confidence was 68% with strong directional reliability.

About This Receipt

This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-10-13 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same morning, after the first-15-minute window has been scored, and are never revised.

Direction is reported in two groups. An asserted call is one where the model committed to UP or DOWN. A neutral call is one where the model declined to assert. A neutral call is correct if the move from the previous close stays inside the tolerance and a miss if the move breaks it. The move and the tolerance are shown on each index card.

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