Veritas — 2026-10-06 — Day 53 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-10-06T08:46:27.353934+05:30
3/3
3/3
1/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (22,600.15) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (22,410.37 – 22,643.19). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was NEUTRAL, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was low at 50% (strong directional reliability). When confidence is below 55%, the band is the primary accountability surface and the directional lean is secondary.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (54,901.30) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (54,282.02 – 55,120.38). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The directional bias was BEARISH, but the actual first-15-minute move was bullish — a direction miss (failure mode: SIGN_MISS). The range still held, so the band served its purpose as the primary accountability surface even though the directional signal was wrong. Model confidence was very low at 38% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (72,497.76) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (71,848.92 – 72,698.17). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The directional bias was BEARISH, but the actual first-15-minute move was bullish — a direction miss (failure mode: SIGN_MISS). The range still held, so the band served its purpose as the primary accountability surface even though the directional signal was wrong. Model confidence was very low at 41% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-10-06 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.