Veritas — 2026-09-30 — Day 50 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-09-30T08:46:39.462916+05:30
3/3
2/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (22,702.85) landed near the midpoint of the predicted band (22,575.58 – 22,818.92). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The directional bias was BULLISH, but the actual first-15-minute move was bearish — a direction miss (failure mode: SIGN_MISS). The range still held, so the band served its purpose as the primary accountability surface even though the directional signal was wrong. Model confidence was very low at 45% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (54,431.40) landed near the midpoint of the predicted band (53,855.63 – 54,749.50). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BULLISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 36% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (72,614.72) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (72,025.53 – 72,900.26). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BULLISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 46% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-09-30 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.