Veritas — 2026-09-28 — Day 48 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-09-28T08:46:23.924464+05:30
1/3
3/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (22,951.70) traded outside the predicted band (22,978.24 – 23,238.51) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 26.54 below the lower bound. Model confidence was very low at 46% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (54,941.40) landed near the lower end of the predicted band (54,822.74 – 56,018.15). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BEARISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 27% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (73,319.27) traded outside the predicted band (73,336.16 – 74,223.85) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 16.89 below the lower bound. Model confidence was low at 53% (strong directional reliability). When confidence is below 55%, the band is the primary accountability surface and the directional lean is secondary.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-09-28 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.