Veritas — 2026-09-25 — Day 47 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-09-25T08:46:34.017287+05:30
3/3
2/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (23,074.00) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (22,922.82 – 23,141.10). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was NEUTRAL, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was low at 50% (strong directional reliability). When confidence is below 55%, the band is the primary accountability surface and the directional lean is secondary.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (55,561.85) landed near the midpoint of the predicted band (55,013.19 – 55,905.67). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The directional bias was BEARISH, but the actual first-15-minute move was bullish — a direction miss (failure mode: SIGN_MISS). The range still held, so the band served its purpose as the primary accountability surface even though the directional signal was wrong. Model confidence was very low at 27% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (73,659.59) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (73,057.60 – 73,909.58). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was NEUTRAL, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 46% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-09-25 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.