Veritas — 2026-09-21 — Day 43 of public tracking
Post-market outcome: predicted first-15-minute bands vs actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.
Observed: 2026-09-21T08:46:26.973865+05:30
2/3
1/3
The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (23,376.65) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (23,191.98 – 23,427.45). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The directional bias was BEARISH, but the actual first-15-minute move was bullish — a direction miss (failure mode: SIGN_MISS). The range still held, so the band served its purpose as the primary accountability surface even though the directional signal was wrong. Model confidence was very low at 45% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (56,425.00) landed near the upper end of the predicted band (55,651.27 – 56,823.32). The band held — the model's first-15-minute range estimate was consistent with the actual first-15-minute trade. The model's directional lean was BULLISH, and the first-15-minute price moved in that direction — both the range and the directional read aligned with what the market did. Model confidence was very low at 36% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
The SENSEX first-15-minute price (74,683.99) traded outside the predicted band (73,762.03 – 74,628.82) — a band miss. The first-15-minute trade printed 55.17 above the upper bound. Directional bias (NEUTRAL) did not match the actual first-15-minute move. The band did not hold, and the direction miss is recorded separately in the validation score. Model confidence was very low at 41% — the model effectively signalled that it was unsure about this session. On sub-48%-confidence days the band width tends to be wider and the directional read carries less weight in the overall score.
About This Receipt
This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-09-21 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same day, after market close, and are never revised.