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Public Validation Receipt

Veritas — 2026-10-23 — Day 65 of public tracking

Outcome of the first 15 minutes of trade: predicted bands against the actual first-15-minute trade. Misses are included. This record is permanent and unedited.

Forecast generated: 2026-10-23T08:46:47.057392+05:30

Bands held (median)
3/3
Minutes inside the band
NIFTY 50 15/15 · BANK NIFTY 15/15 · SENSEX 10/15
Bands held (10 of 15 minutes)
3/3
Direction (asserted)
2 of 3
Direction (neutral)
0 of 0 correct
NIFTY 50
BAND HIT
Predicted band (low)22,653.77
Predicted band (high)22,807.36
Model centre22,729.79
Actual open (09:15-09:25 Median)22,728.65
Band result (median of 09:15/09:20/09:25)HIT ✓
Band result (at least 10 of 15 minutes)HIT ✓ (15/15 minutes, 100%)
Direction (asserted: BULLISH)Correct ✓
Confidence92.3%
Direction sourceovernight gap-sign rule; classifier shadow: BULLISH

The NIFTY 50 first-15-minute price (22,728.65) landed in the middle part of the predicted band (22,653.77 to 22,807.36). That is 1.14 points below the model's centre (22,729.79). The band held on the median test, and the index was inside it for 15 of 15 one-minute closes (100%). The model asserted a BULLISH direction, and the first-15-minute price moved that way. The asserted call is scored correct. Model confidence was 92% with strong directional reliability.

BANK NIFTY
BAND HIT
Predicted band (low)54,508.74
Predicted band (high)55,332.10
Model centre55,008.59
Actual open (09:15-09:25 Median)54,753.10
Band result (median of 09:15/09:20/09:25)HIT ✓
Band result (at least 10 of 15 minutes)HIT ✓ (15/15 minutes, 100%)
Direction (asserted: BULLISH)Miss ✗
Confidence75.0%
Direction sourceovernight gap-sign rule; classifier shadow: BEARISH
Failure modeDirection miss — band held but bias was wrong

The BANK NIFTY first-15-minute price (54,753.10) landed in the lower part of the predicted band (54,508.74 to 55,332.10). That is 255.49 points below the model's centre (55,008.59). The band held on the median test, and the index was inside it for 15 of 15 one-minute closes (100%). The model asserted a BULLISH direction, and the first-15-minute move did not match it. The asserted call is scored a miss. Model confidence was 75% with strong directional reliability.

SENSEX
BAND HIT
Predicted band (low)73,207.90
Predicted band (high)73,641.18
Model centre73,437.72
Actual open (09:15-09:25 Median)73,590.18
Band result (median of 09:15/09:20/09:25)HIT ✓
Band result (at least 10 of 15 minutes)HIT ✓ (10/15 minutes, 67%)
Direction (asserted: BULLISH)Correct ✓
Confidence88.3%
Direction sourceovernight gap-sign rule; classifier shadow: BULLISH

The SENSEX first-15-minute price (73,590.18) landed in the upper part of the predicted band (73,207.90 to 73,641.18). That is 152.46 points above the model's centre (73,437.72). The band held on the median test, and the index was inside it for 10 of 15 one-minute closes (67%). The model asserted a BULLISH direction, and the first-15-minute price moved that way. The asserted call is scored correct. Model confidence was 88% with strong directional reliability.

About This Receipt

This is a permanent, unedited record of what AION Veritas predicted before the 2026-10-23 market open versus what the market actually did. Validation price is the 09:15–09:25 IST median first-15-minute window. Receipts are published the same morning, after the first-15-minute window has been scored, and are never revised.

Direction is reported in two groups. An asserted call is one where the model committed to UP or DOWN. A neutral call is one where the model declined to assert. A neutral call is correct if the move from the previous close stays inside the tolerance and a miss if the move breaks it. The move and the tolerance are shown on each index card.

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