Understand the morning range. Before you decide what it means.
A beginner's guide to probability bands, market uncertainty and transparent forecast checking. Veritas publishes a probability band for the opening window of major Indian indices. This page shows you how to read one, how it is checked, and where to see every result, including the ones that missed.
What is NIFTY 50?
NIFTY 50 is an index: one number that tracks a fixed basket of 50 large companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India. When those companies' prices rise together, the index rises; when they fall, it falls. The first minutes after the 09:15 IST open are often the most unsettled part of the day, because overnight news is being priced in at once. The index provider describes the index here: niftyindices.com.
What is a probability band?
24,000midpointHypothetical upper bound
24,200
Suppose a model publishes, before the market opens, a band from 24,000 to 24,200 for the first 15 minutes of trading. That band has:
- A lower and an upper boundary: the range the model thinks the early trade is likely to stay within.
- A midpoint: the centre of the range. It is not a target.
- A publication time: Veritas bands are published before 08:55 IST, before the market opens.
- A forecast window: 09:15 to 09:30 IST only. Not the whole day, and not the close.
- A stated probability: the model's own estimate of how likely the early trade is to stay inside.
- An outcome: what the market actually did, checked after the window closes.
The band is a range of possible outcomes, not a promise that the index will stay inside it.
How a band is checked
Every Veritas receipt applies two published tests to each index:
- The median test: the middle of three prices, at 09:15, 09:20 and 09:25, must fall inside the band.
- The minutes test: at least 10 of the 15 minutes from 09:15 must trade inside the band.
The two tests can disagree. Passing the median test does not mean every price in the window stayed inside; the receipt shows how many minutes did.
When the band holds: 19 Oct 2026
NIFTY 50 band 22,958.16 to 23,174.34. Median of the three prices: 23,150.85, inside. Minutes inside: 15 of 15. Hit on both tests. All three indices held that morning.
When the band misses: 15 Oct 2026
NIFTY 50 band 22,531.59 to 22,691.33. Median of the three prices: 22,718.85, above the band. Minutes inside: 2 of 15. Miss on both tests. One of three indices held that morning.
Both examples are past sessions, quoted from their receipts, which are permanent and unedited.
Three different numbers that are easy to mix up
- The band's stated probability is the model's estimate, made before the open, that the early trade stays inside. It is a prediction about the future, not a measured result.
- Directional confidence is a separate estimate of whether the index leans up, down or flat. It says nothing about the width of the range.
- The historical record is what actually happened: how often the bands held, counted from the receipts.
A band that says "roughly 80 percent" has not been shown to hold 80 percent of the time unless the receipts show it. Count them yourself in the validation archive.
Quick check: a band holds on one day. Does that prove the model works?
No. One session proves nothing either way. What matters is the record over many sessions, misses included, compared with what the model claimed in advance.
Quick check: the band says 80 percent and the day misses. Was the model wrong?
Not necessarily. An 80 percent range is expected to miss about one session in five. A model is wrong if, over many sessions, its misses are far more frequent than it claimed.
Why forecasts miss
- News that arrives after the band is published, or during the first minutes of trade.
- A large overnight move in global markets, crude oil or the rupee.
- A sudden change in how jumpy the market is.
- Late or weak input data before the open.
- The limits of any model: some mornings are not like the past ones it learned from.
A missed band is not hidden. It stays in the record next to the hits, so you can judge the model by its whole history rather than its best days.
What Veritas can and cannot tell you
Veritas is an information and research tool. It does not tell you whether to buy, sell or hold anything. It cannot know your risk tolerance, your finances, or whether a trade suits you. It cannot tell you which option to buy, whether to trade today, how to limit a loss, whether a position will make money, how much to risk, or where the market will close.
The free trial and the paid plans
| Free NIFTY 50 trial | Single Index | All Indices | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | Free, no card | ₹499 a month | ₹1,999 a month |
| Indices | NIFTY 50 | one, chosen at checkout and fixed | NIFTY 50, BANK NIFTY, SENSEX |
| Length | 7 calendar days (168 hours) from activation | monthly | monthly |
| Needs | a verified email and a passkey | payment through Razorpay | |
The trial runs for 168 hours from the moment you activate it. Weekends and market holidays count, so it usually covers five trading sessions, fewer if a holiday falls in that week. When it ends, the live band stops; nothing renews and nothing is charged. You can then choose a paid plan, or keep reading the free public archive. Prices and plan details are on the Veritas page, which is the authority if anything here differs.
Seven consecutive days from activation, including weekends and market holidays. Email verification and a passkey are required. No payment card for the free trial.
Getting started
- Read this page and a few receipts in the archive.
- Open the free NIFTY 50 trial and accept the Terms.
- Verify your email, then register a passkey (your device's fingerprint, face or PIN).
- Your API key is shown once. Save it somewhere safe, with the recovery key shown next to it.
- Open the Veritas page; its band panel shows each session's NIFTY 50 band to your key.
- Check each morning's band against its receipt after the session.
Never share your key with anyone, including in a public chat or with someone claiming to be support. AION will never ask for it.
Frequently asked questions
Is Veritas a tip or a call?
No. It is a probability range for the first 15 minutes, published before the open and checked afterwards. It is not a buy or sell call.
Can the forecast be wrong?
Yes, and some are. Every miss is in the public record.
What time is the band published?
Before 08:55 IST on trading days.
Does it cover the whole trading day?
No. Only 09:15 to 09:30 IST.
Can I see failed predictions?
Yes. Every receipt, hit or miss, is in the validation archive, free and without an account.
Why do I need a passkey?
It ties the trial to a real person on a real device, so one person cannot open many free trials. It uses your device's own screen lock; AION never sees your fingerprint or face.
Is a payment card needed for the trial?
No.
Does the trial include BANK NIFTY or SENSEX?
No. NIFTY 50 only. BANK NIFTY and SENSEX are on the paid plans.
What happens after seven days? Why do weekends count?
The trial is 168 hours from activation, not a number of sessions, so weekends and holidays are part of it. When it ends the live band stops. Nothing renews automatically.
Can I start the trial again?
No. It is one trial per verified person and per device.
Is AION registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst or Investment Adviser?
No. AION publishes information and research, not advice, and does not give buy or sell recommendations.
One question for you
AION Analytics (India). Information and research, not advice; AION does not give buy or sell recommendations. Markets carry risk. Questions: [email protected].